Correlation is not causation, but one financial services group has analyzed some data and released a report on various implicated drivers  

Based on analysis of 2022 data* of 146 countries in four regions (Asia, Europe, Africa and America),  a group of financial services companies has announced some findings about fintech industry development.

First, data used for the analysis showed that fintech industry growth had the strongest correlation with the size of the cybersecurity market, with correlation coefficients of 0.8714 (in Europe data), 0.9762 (in American data), and 0.8607 (globally).

In the data for Asia, fintech growth was more closely tied to the size of the consumer electronics market (0.9403). Also:

  • In Africa, fintech industry growth was most correlated with consumer spending volumes (0.7427).
  • Also, the data was used to assert a direct and linear relationship in that, for every US$1m increase in the global cybersecurity market, fintech transactions per adult were expected to rise by US$31.6. Similarly, a US$1 increase in the average hourly wage could boost fintech transactions by US$67.5. The establishment of just one more fintech hub could increase global fintech transactions per capita by US$839.
  • The correlation of each country’s income and fintech growth, cybersecurity market size and average wage rates was noted to be stronger.
  • Deeper non-linear analysis of the data showed that cybersecurity was the most influential factor (63% significance) driving development of the fintech industry in the country data examined for 2022. The next most influential factor driving development of the industry was the average hourly wage rate of the countries, with a significance level of 13%.

Second, from an economic standpoint, data from high-income countries in 2022 exhibited the strongest correlations with fintech industry growth:

  • ⟩ Size of the cybersecurity market (0.6923)
  • ⟩ Size of the consumer electronics industry (0.5839)
  • ⟩ Average wage rates (0.6237)
  • ⟩ Consumer spending volumes (0.6971)

Data from the low-income economies showed no significant correlations with fintech industry growth.* Data from the middle-income countries show correlations with fintech industry performance via nominal GDP (0.5373), cybersecurity market (0.5727), consumer electronics market (0.5637), fintech hubs (0.5409), and volumes of consumer spending (0.6136).

The data analysis report was by UnaFinancial.

*including gender ratio, nominal GDP per capita, Internet penetration, cybersecurity market volumes per capita, consumer electronics market volumes, number of fintech hubs per 100,000 people, average hourly wages, consumer spending per capita, direct investment as a share of GDP, unemployment rates, trade volume relative to GDP, and share of urban population

^The lack of significant correlations in low-income economies could be argued to arise from data limitations or other unmeasured factors