Critics highlight methodological gaps, arguing projections overlook routine upgrades while warning of potential lobbying influence shaping the policy narrative.
European telecom operators could face costs of up to €40bn (about US$46bn) if they are required to remove Huawei and ZTE equipment from their networks, according to a new industry-backed analysis that sharply exceeds earlier official estimates.
The report, produced by GSMA Intelligence and supported by several major European carriers, argues that a comprehensive removal of so-called “high-risk vendors” would impose far broader financial strain than previously acknowledged by policymakers in Brussels.
The findings arrive as the European Union is considering the tightening of its cybersecurity framework and potentially making existing guidance on vendor restrictions legally binding.
Potential bias, conflict of interest?
A key point of contention lies in the gap between industry and regulatory estimates.
- The European Commission had previously calculated that replacing high-risk vendors in mobile networks would cost between €3.4bn and €4.3bn annually over a three-year period, totaling roughly €10bn to €13bn. However, that assessment was limited in scope, focusing only on mobile infrastructure.
- By contrast, the GSMA-backed study expands the analysis to include fixed broadband and transport networks, significantly increasing the projected total. It estimates that mobile network replacement alone would cost between €16bn and €22bn, while transport infrastructure would add €9bn to €12bn. Fixed broadband systems could account for a further €5bn. The report also anticipates secondary effects, including reduced vendor competition, which could drive an additional €8.5bn in costs between 2027 and 2030. Under these conditions, the study suggests mobile equipment prices could consequently rise by as much as 24%.
These GSMA conclusions have drawn skepticism from some policy analysts. Critics argue that the headline figures represent gross costs and fail to account for routine equipment upgrades that operators would have undertaken regardless of regulatory intervention. Similar disputes have surfaced before; earlier GSMA projections about the financial impact of restricting Huawei’s role in 5G networks were later challenged by independent research firms that produced far lower estimates.
Questions have also been raised about potential bias, given that GSMA represents mobile operators and includes Huawei among its members. This has fueled concerns that the report may reflect industry lobbying efforts aimed at influencing the regulatory debate rather than providing a neutral economic assessment.
Do security implications outweigh cost concerns?
The broader policy environment in the EU continues to shift. The European Commission has already proposed expanding cybersecurity rules across multiple critical sectors, and has formally urged member states to exclude Huawei and ZTE from key infrastructure.
Legal backing for such measures is also strengthening, with a senior adviser to the EU’s top court indicating that national governments have the authority to impose bans on security grounds.
While it remains uncertain whether the industry’s cost warnings will alter the legislative trajectory, some countries are already moving ahead. Germany, for example, has committed to removing Huawei equipment from its 5G core networks by the end of 2026, signaling that, for some operators, the financial and operational implications are no longer hypothetical but imminent.
